Commentary No. 16, May 15, 1999
"Refugees"
The twentieth century has taught us two things about refugees. One is that any mass exodus is a very painful experience for those who are engaged in it, whether they have fled their homes because of terror, fear of terror, or panic. The second is that refugees almost never go home, no matter how much they want to.
In the last two months, the world's media have been full of stories and images about Kosovo refugees. A large portion of the Kosovar population previously resident in Kosovo have now fled their homes (or have been pushed out of them). They have gone primarily to Albania and Macedonia, to a lesser extent to Montenegro, and in much smaller numbers to a large number of other countries. Families have been separated. Homes have been burned and are no longer there to which to return. And, as always with refugees, the number of adult males who have been successful in fleeing with their families is disproportionately small. In the case of the Kosovars, some adult males have joined the guerilla army, the KLA. Others have been killed by the Serbian forces, some arbitrarily and others to prevent them from joining the KLA. Still others have been arrested and interned. The story, as always, is not fully clear, but most of the details we have are grim.
The world press, or at least the press of the Western world, has been covering these stories in some detail. The NATO governments have invested money in refugee aid, and have been willing to take into their countries some refugees, but a quite limited number. This is partly because they don't really want to have them, and partly because it is politically more effective if the refugees remain in bordering countries, in camps, awaiting return. By world standards, the amount of aid to these refugees is relatively large, but nonetheless the aid organizations are complaining daily that it is far from enough. And I have no reason to doubt that this is so.
Housing refugees in camps in neighboring countries does pose problems for those countries. In Albania, where political receptivity for the Kosovar refugees is very high, the poorer Albanians are beginning to complain that they are living even worse than the Kosovar refugees, and get no assistance. In Macedonia, the problem is worse. There is a delicate demographic and political balance in the country between Slavic Macedonians and Albanian-speaking Macedonians. The refugees are shifting this balance, and the majority Slavic populations are afraid this will lead to a move for Albanian secession. They are politically unhappy and uncomfortable hosts. For the moment, the problem is contained (but the Macedonian government has now in effect closed the border to more refugees). However, if the situation continues for much longer, it could explode.
One key agency that is aiding the refugees from Kosovo is the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR). This agency of course operates throughout the globe and Kosovo is only one of its pressing concerns. The other pressing concerns are magnificently ignored by the major world news media. For example, about ten days ago, Fernando Costa Freire, speaking on behalf of a UNHCR structure in southern Africa, stated: "We are looking at bigger numbers of people in Angola than those fleeing Kosovo. We have to feed, clothe, and house these people and aid can only be sent to them by air and supplies are diminishing. Angola desperately needs more support from donors now." This past month, I have been watching three television news networks - CNN, BBC, and TF1 (France) - and I did not catch any mention of the Angola refugee dilemma, despite the fact that it is bigger than that of Kosovo.
We know more or less why there are refugees in Kosovo. Why are there refugees in Angola? There has been a civil war in Angola for 24 years now. At the beginning, there were three factions: the MPLA, which formed the recognized government; the FLNA, which initially had strong support from Mobutu's Zaire and the U.S. government, both of which considered the MPLA to be too left-wing and "pro-Soviet"; and UNITA, which once had been Maoist but then decided to be super-pro-Western. The FLNA died out, but UNITA go strong support from the apartheid regime in South Africa and from the CIA.
As always, there were ethnic underpinnings to these various movements, although the MPLA was resolutely nationalist and anti-"tribal." UNITA, given the strength of its outside support, in money and in actual troops (South African army as well as mercenaries), became a very strong force, controlling about half the country. It waged a no-holds-barred war. The result has been the world's record in land-mine casualties and an enormous number of refugees. With the end of the Cold War, the U.S. decided enough was enough and brokered, along with the U.N., a political compromise, with U.N.-supervised elections to determine the new government. The problem is that UNITA lost these elections, but refused to accept the results. And since they now controlled the diamond area, they could self-finance their war, even without South Africa support (no more apartheid government) and probably without CIA support (although one can never be sure).
So there we are - refugees galore; a continuing war; and certainly a human rights disaster. It might all have been averted, if the U.S. had been willing in 1975 to accept what seemed to be majority views in Angola at the time. What should we do now? Send money? The refugees in Angola are living in far worse conditions that the Kosovar refugees. They will never go home. The war in Angola will continue for some time yet, and many more will die and be displaced. The world news media will continue to ignore Angola. And the policies of the other governments of the world will be made by a very few people out of the limelight, and pursuing narrow geopolitical objectives, without the least concern for "human rights."
And in Kosovo? Will the refugees ever go home? The official NATO line is, absolutely, and under NATO protection. I am more skeptical. The war will continue for a while, until a political solution will be negotiated. When it is, some Kosovo refugees will return, but undoubtedly not all of them. How safe they'll be and how long they'll stay remains to be seen. In the wake of the First World War, there were extensive Greek-Turkish conflicts. The large Greek population resident in what is now Turkey and the large Turkish population resident in what is now Greece had to flee. They have never returned and will never return. In 1948, in the wake of independences, there were extensive Indian-Pakistani conflicts. Many millions of Muslims fled what is now India to Pakistan and many millions of Hindus fled what is now Pakistan to India. They have never returned and they will never return.
Immanuel Wallerstein
[Copyright by Immanuel Wallerstein. All rights reserved. Permission is granted to download, forward electronically or e-mail to others and to post this text on non-commercial community Internet sites, provided the essay remains intact and the copyright note is displayed. To translate this text, publish it in printed and/or other forms, including commercial Internet sites and excerpts, contact the author at iwaller@binghamton.edu; fax: 1-607-777-4315.
These commentaries, published twice monthly, are intended to be reflections on the contemporary world scene, as seen
from the perspective not of the immediate headlines but of the long term.]
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