Fernand Braudel Center,
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Commentary No. 184, May 1, 2006
"The United States and China: Wary Rivals"
President Hu Jintao of the People's Republic of China has just completed a visit to the United States. Before he came, President Bush said that the two countries had a "complicated" relationship. For once, Bush had it right.
President Hu made three main stops: Seattle, Washington, and New Haven. The choice of places to visit illustrates well the nature of the historic relationship between the United States and China. The stop in New Haven, to visit Yale University, was homage to the oldest links between the two countries. The first Americans to visit China were New England merchants and their clipper ships, seeking trade. New England also sent missionaries - both religious and medical. In 1835, Peter Parker, a graduate of Yale College and Yale Medical School, opened the Ophthalmic Infirmary in Canton (now Guangzhou), the first Western-style hospital in China. Two decades later in 1854, Yung Wing became the first Chinese to graduate from an American university. He had been sent to Yale by a Christian missionary located in Hong Kong. Since then Yale has cultivated a particular interest in China.
By visiting New Haven, President Hu was acknowledging this history. But China no longer receives United States missionaries - religious or medical. Now it engages in graduate student exchange with Yale and other institutions worldwide. The past, however one evaluates it, is the past.
The present was represented by the visit to Washington. We should note various small details about this visit. First of all, it was not a state visit, which is what President Hu had wanted it to be - a small but significant rebuff by Bush. Secondly, President Hu did not visit Crawford, Texas, which is what President Bush had wanted. I suppose Bush wanted to look Hu in the eyes (as he says he did Putin at Crawford) and decide whether or not Hu was trustworthy. Bush had to forego this possibility. This was a small but significant rebuff by Hu.
The meeting in Washington was around an agenda of things Bush wanted from Hu: first of all, support for strong action on nuclear development in both Iran and North Korea; secondly, various economic measures that might reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China; thirdly, some clemency to various political prisoners in China. All Hu specifically wanted was some assurance that the United States would somehow sanction Taiwan should it declare independence.
The result was zero to zero. Bush got virtually nothing from Hu, and Hu in return got nothing from Bush. This was all done politely but unflinchingly. Obviously, neither side wanted to do or say anything that would transform a "complicated" relationship into a hostile one, despite the fact that each man was under some domestic pressure to move in that direction.
Behind this wary rivalry lies some medium-run assumptions on each side. The U.S. government sees China as an "emerging" power - of growing importance in the economic, political, and military spheres. It likes the economic development, seeing China as an important trade partner, is dubious about the growing political strength, and fears the growing military strength. It is banking, I think, on a prediction that the economic role will tame the military role and that the Communist Party of China will decline in influence (or even disappear altogether) in the next twenty years.
China also has a bet on the future. It sees the United States as a giant in decline - economic decline, political decline, and military decline. It believes it needs to keep the giant unprovoked in the present, and merely bide its time, so that twenty years from now, when the U.S. star has dimmed, its own star will be shining brightly.
This brings us to the third stop on the trip - Seattle. Seattle is the locus of the two major U.S. industries in which China maintains a great interest - Microsoft and Boeing. No doubt the Chinese think they will one day exceed both. But for the moment, it needs their products and their technical expertise. So China is cultivating them (it has just announced it will buy 150 Boeing planes) and they of course are cultivating China. Indeed, such industries constitute the major political support in the United States for continuing links with China against the ideological hawks who want openly to proclaim China an enemy, now and not waiting for the future.
In terms of political style, China has always been the land of the long horizon and therefore of patience. The United States has always been the land of urgent progress and therefore of impatience. We shall see which style is more fitting for our era.
by Immanuel Wallerstein
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These commentaries, published twice monthly, are intended to be reflections on the contemporary world scene, as seen from the perspective not of the immediate headlines but of
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