Commentary No. 18, June 15, 1999
"Mandela the Miraculous"
When historians look back upon the twentieth century fifty years from now, they will want to explain how it is that Nelson Mandela became the universal hero, admired east and west, north and south, left and right. No other figure has received such universal acclaim, except perhaps Mahatma Gandhi. But Gandhi was a semi-religious figure, whereas Mandela is a completely secular one.
It was not always so. Twenty years ago, Mandela was in prison for life as a terrorist leader. He himself, and his movement, the African National Congress (ANC), were controversial. Denounced by the apartheid government and its supporters as "Communists," they were regarded suspiciously by the United States and many other Western governments. Furthermore, even the most ardent supporters of the ANC recognized that they were militarily weak (even if morally correct), and thought that it would be extremely difficult for them to come to power in South Africa. Furthermore, the ANC itself and its supporters elsewhere were sure that the only way to end apartheid was by a fierce armed struggle.
Yet, a seeming miracle occurred. Beginning in the late 1980's, the apartheid government began to negotiate a transfer of power to the ANC. The negotiations became concrete in the early 1990's, and retrospectively one can say they went very fast. The outlawed parties were relegalized by the apartheid government, the apartheid laws were repealed, and the government (still in the hands of the old apartheid leaders) permitted elections by universal suffrage in 1994. The ANC won handily and Nelson Mandela was elected President of South Africa. A new constitution was adopted, and a fundamental political transformation was achieved.
How was it possible that the apartheid supporters, so firm in their convictions and with such a strong hold on the governmental machinery, would allow their structures to be totally destroyed and all they stood for overturned? No doubt many factors played a role. The ANC had demonstrated over a period of 30-40 years a strong and continuing hold on the allegiance of the vast majority of South Africa's population. Even if it could not translate this support into military strength, it repeatedly showed to the government and to the world its support in civil society. Over the years, its international diplomacy had led to ever increased economic and political isolation of the South Africa apartheid government. This had become particularly uncomfortable for big business, which wished to emerge from this isolation and thought it could live quite well within a South Africa based on universal suffrage and with an ANC government. And the end of the Cold War meant that the Western world was less fearful of the fact that the South African Communist Party was a long-standing ally of the ANC.
Yet all of this would not have sufficed for a peaceful transfer of power. The ANC had to make two deals. One was with big business. And the second was with the apartheid government. The first deal required that the ANC downplay its historic commitment to socialism and pursue a policy that would resemble that of many "social-democratic" governments around the world today: no nationalizations, and an openness to the world market, combined with some social welfare measures.
The second deal, with the apartheid government and its supporters, especially the security forces, had to respond to the fears of the latter that they would have to pay the price for all their horrible acts during the apartheid period - the murders, the tortures, the persecutions. The deal was quite straightforward. The ANC agreed to set up a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, chaired by Nobel prizewinner Archbishop Desmond Tutu, which would seek, through testimony, to reveal the "truth" about what had happened during the apartheid years and would then be willing to grant amnesty, upon request, from perpetrators of evil acts in return for a full exposition of exactly what they had done.
Nelson Mandela thus presided for five years (1994-1999) over this transformation - the establishment of a non-racial government over which the ANC had political control. It was a government whose economic policies were on the left end of the world spectrum but fell well within the constraints of the capitalist world-system. And it was a government that pursued truth with reconciliation, but not necessarily with justice. The policies were those of the ANC and reflected the historic character of this movement, but there is no doubt that the remarkable personality of Nelson Mandela enabled this difficult program to go smoothly. Mandela has been able to marry an unremitting militancy about the rights of the majority in South Africa (and a personal suffering for this militancy) with an open hand to his former opponents (and to the White population of South Africa in general) that has inspired in almost everyone confidence in his sagacity and trustworthiness.
In an era of widespread disillusionment with the old antisystemic movements, perhaps the world needed a hero. The world did indeed adopt Mandela. He seemed a symbol of incredible hopefulness that seduced even the most cynical. He calmed his own impatient followers. He made the U.S. government cheer, even as he was embracing Fidel Castro and Muammar Gaddafi for their fidelity in the long, hard struggle against apartheid. And throughout Asia, Africa, and Latin America, he was lionized.
Yet, as his term of office ends, South Africa's problems come only now to the fore. The deal the ANC made with big business has been hard to swallow by the left wing of the ANC, as well as by their formal allies, the South African Communist Party and COSATU (the trade-union organization). And the deal with the security forces has been hard to swallow by the families of all those who were killed and tortured by the apartheid government. The achievements of Mandela's presidency have been political - the peacefulness of the transfer of power. Economically, the picture is less brilliant. Yes, the government has provided more water for the townships and the rural areas, and yes it has built some new housing. Big business has not fled the country, and the economy is still functioning. But, in terms of the needs of the Black majority, the improvements have been a drop in the bucket.
The real politics begin now, under the new president, Thabo Mbeki. The ANC was returned in 199 with an even bigger majority than in 1994 - a vote of confidence. But it will have to produce results economically in the next five years, or will not do so well again. The underlying social fissures are not at all healed. Nelson the miraculous is no longer there to calm the discontents. And there is no easy way to bring the Black majority to a standard of living anywhere near that of the remaining White population of the country.
Immanuel Wallerstein
[Copyright by Immanuel Wallerstein. All rights reserved. Permission is granted to download, forward electronically or e-mail to others and to post this text on non-commercial community Internet sites, provided the essay remains intact and the copyright note is displayed. To translate this text, publish it in printed and/or other forms, including commercial Internet sites and excerpts, contact the author at iwaller@binghamton.edu; fax: 1-607-777-4315.
These commentaries, published twice monthly, are intended to be reflections on the contemporary world scene, as seen
from the perspective not of the immediate headlines but of the long term.]
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